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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.