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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."