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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.